2024年9月房企销售数据点评：新房销售降幅扩大，止跌回稳强目标下政策加速落地

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][5][28]. Core Insights - In September 2024, new home sales saw an expanded decline, with a year-on-year drop of 41% among 50 major real estate companies, while sales amount reached 2,010 billion yuan, a 2% increase month-on-month [3][5]. - The report highlights a shift in policy focus from supply-side to demand-side measures, aiming to stabilize the real estate market and support recovery [3][5]. - Key policies announced include a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and mortgage rates, as well as adjustments to housing purchase restrictions [3][5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September 2024, the top three companies by sales were Poly Developments (21.3 billion yuan, YOY -41%), China Overseas (18.8 billion yuan, YOY -33%), and China Resources (16.9 billion yuan, YOY -36%) [3][5]. - Cumulatively, from January to September 2024, Poly Developments led with 242.1 billion yuan in sales (YOY -28%), followed by China Overseas at 198.8 billion yuan (YOY -17%) and Vanke at 180.5 billion yuan (YOY -36%) [3][5]. Policy Developments - Recent policy measures include lowering the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points and reducing existing mortgage rates to align with new loan rates, expected to decrease by approximately 0.5 percentage points [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the need for further demand-side policy initiatives to stimulate the market and address the ongoing decline in sales [3][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality real estate companies such as Binhai Group, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and China Resources for potential investment opportunities [3][5]. - It also suggests maintaining a "positive" rating for property management companies, recommending firms like China Resources Vientiane and Poly Property [3][5].