国内高频指标跟踪（2024年第38期）：假期经济：恢复如何？

Consumption Trends - During the National Day holiday, tourism consumption in Guangdong, Liaoning, and Sichuan provinces saw significant growth, with tourist numbers increasing by 6.3% in Guangdong and 19.8% in Liaoning, leading to a tourism revenue increase of 21.6%[9][10] - Movie consumption was relatively flat, with average daily box office revenue declining by 12.8% compared to the previous year, despite the first day surpassing last year's figures[9][10] - The average ticket price for movies dropped to 40.4 yuan, the lowest since 2021, contributing to the decline in box office revenue[9][10] Real Estate Market - New real estate policies implemented at the end of September led to a significant improvement in property sales, with average daily new home sales in 30 major cities increasing by 67.7% year-on-year[19][20] - The sales area of second-hand homes also saw a substantial increase, with the average sales area during the week being nearly 13 times that of the same period last year[19][20] Economic Indicators - The production synchronization index for September was reported at 4.81%, slightly down from 4.97% in August, indicating a marginal slowdown in production growth[24] - The export synchronization index improved to 7.16% in September from 6.71% in August, suggesting a positive trend in export activities[24] Price Movements - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 2.0% decrease in pork prices, while vegetable prices increased by 0.2%, leading to a year-on-year growth of 28.1%[41] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 5.6%, with significant increases in energy and building materials prices, including an 8.4% rise in crude oil prices[41] Market Risks - Potential risks include a sharper-than-expected decline in external demand and insufficient growth-stabilizing policies[44]