海外经济政策跟踪：假期期间：海外关注什么？

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - The Middle East situation continues to escalate, impacting global markets[8] - The EU has approved a proposal to impose tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China, with rates up to 35.3%[9] - Japan's new Prime Minister, Kishida, emphasizes combating deflation as a key economic priority[9] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are signaling dovish monetary policies, with potential rate cuts on the horizon[10] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have decreased, with a current forecast of a 50 basis point cut by year-end[10][15] - Colombia's central bank has reduced rates by 50 basis points to 10.25%[10] Group 3: Asset Performance - International oil prices surged by 7.9% due to geopolitical tensions, closing at $78 per barrel[11] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 10.2%, marking its highest level since February 2022[11] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 23 basis points to 3.98%, while the dollar index strengthened by 2.1% to 102.5[11] Group 4: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. added 254,000 jobs in September, significantly above the market expectation of 150,000[13] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.2%[13] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI remained at 47.2, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9, indicating a divergence in economic sectors[13][15] Group 5: European Economic Conditions - Eurozone inflation has eased to below 2% for the first time since June 2021, with HICP growth at 1.8%[19] - The unemployment rate in the EU remains low at 5.9%, with the Eurozone at 6.4%[19] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the Eurozone showed a year-on-year decline of 2.3%[19]