牛市复盘：建材建筑表现及启示

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" and recommends a "Buy" [1]. Core Insights - The report analyzes five bull markets in the Shanghai Composite Index since 2005, highlighting that significant policy measures often mark the beginning of these bull markets. The five bull markets are characterized by varying durations and percentage increases in the index, with the first bull market seeing a 502% increase over 27 months [2]. - The construction materials and building sectors have generally outperformed the index during these bull markets, with notable excess returns in specific periods, particularly in the first three bull markets [2]. - Recent domestic policy measures are expected to significantly improve economic growth momentum, with monetary policy easing and supportive measures for the real estate sector being key drivers [2]. - The report suggests that the construction materials and building sectors are poised for improvement, with attractive valuations and potential for growth, particularly in segments like renovation materials and cement [2]. Summary by Sections Overview of the Five Bull Markets - The report outlines the five bull markets from 2005 onwards, detailing their duration, percentage increases, and key driving factors such as monetary policy and domestic demand [2][12][24]. Performance of Construction Materials and Building Sectors - In the first bull market (2005-2007), construction materials and buildings outperformed the index by 215% and 97%, respectively. The second bull market (2008-2009) saw excess returns of 94% for construction materials, while buildings lagged slightly [18][24]. - The third bull market (2014-2015) had construction materials and buildings outperforming the index by 22% and 127%, respectively, driven by high demand in the real estate sector [18][24]. - The fourth bull market (2016-2018) showed construction materials outperforming by 22%, while buildings slightly underperformed by 1% [23][24]. - In the fifth bull market (2019-2021), construction materials outperformed the index by 55%, while buildings underperformed by 60%, attributed to high demand in the real estate sector and declining infrastructure investment [23][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for improvement in the construction materials and building sectors, suggesting that investors focus on segments with positive demand trends, particularly renovation materials and leading cement companies [2][24]. - It also highlights the importance of monitoring the recovery in real estate demand and the performance of non-real estate related sectors such as fiberglass and refractory materials [2][24].