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出海和内需共振,高质量发展打开成长空间
Guolian Securities·2024-10-07 13:03

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The power equipment industry is experiencing high growth driven by overseas exports and domestic ultra-high voltage (UHV) demand. The investment is shifting from the main grid to the distribution network, indicating a positive outlook for sustained growth and excellent performance in the industry [3][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Surge in Overseas Exports of Power Equipment - In the first eight months of 2024, China's total transformer exports reached $3.84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%. Among these, the export value of liquid-immersed transformers was $2.45 billion, up 53.5% year-on-year [9][11]. - The demand for liquid-immersed transformers in Europe and North America has seen significant growth, with exports to Europe increasing by 109% and to North America by 76% [14][15]. - Major companies like Hitachi Energy and Siemens Energy have announced expansion plans exceeding $1 billion, indicating a sustained demand for transformers in the overseas market [16][32]. 2. Continued Investment Boom in Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) - The UHV investment is entering a peak period, with significant projects underway. By August 2024, cumulative investment in the power grid reached 333 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.1% [37][41]. - The report anticipates that the high demand for UHV construction will continue into the 15th Five-Year Plan, with an expected need for 28 new UHV direct current lines [41][42]. 3. Acceleration of Smart Distribution Network Transformation - The transition of the distribution network from a unidirectional to a bidirectional interactive system is underway, driven by the increasing share of renewable energy [46][50]. - The report highlights the urgency of establishing a distributed smart grid to accommodate the rising demand for distributed energy sources and new load types [46][50]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three key areas: overseas exports, UHV, and smart distribution network transformation. Key players in transformer and smart meter exports, as well as core UHV equipment manufacturers, are recommended for investment [6][37].