造纸轻工行业周报：政策积极信号释放，重点关注家居、轻工内销；三季报预计出口收入端增长好于内需

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the light industry manufacturing sector, particularly focusing on the home furnishing and domestic sales segments [2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant signals from the Political Bureau meeting aimed at stabilizing the economy, suggesting a focus on the post-cycle real estate home furnishing sector and quality domestic light industry stocks. It anticipates that the midstream manufacturing sector will likely recover alongside consumer demand [2][5]. - The third-quarter earnings preview indicates that domestic demand remains under pressure, but companies with strong growth resilience are expected to continue performing well. Export demand is outpacing domestic sales, with minor impacts from exchange rate fluctuations on profits [2][10]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Home furnishing valuations are at a low point, with institutional allocation ratios being low and pessimism fully released. The easing of housing purchase restrictions in first-tier cities is expected to improve market sentiment and consumer confidence, leading to marginal improvements in demand [2][5]. - Recommended companies include leading brands such as Sofitel, Oppein, and Kuka, which are expected to benefit from valuation recovery [2][5]. Light Industry Domestic Sales - Consumer power is anticipated to recover marginally, with a continued upgrade in product structure. Companies like Morning Glory and Bull Group are recommended for their strong supply chain advantages and diversified channel strategies [2][5]. - Domestic brands like Baiya and Dengkang Oral Care are highlighted for their resilience and growth potential despite market challenges [2][5]. Midstream Manufacturing - The packaging and paper industry is expected to see profitability bottoming out over the next 2-3 years, with ongoing optimization of market structure. Companies like Yutong Technology and Yongxin are noted for their strong dividend policies and improving profitability [2][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of capital expenditure reduction and increased dividends as key strategies for enhancing shareholder returns [2][5]. Third-Quarter Earnings Preview - The light industry consumption sector is expected to show strong growth in companies like Baiya, with projected revenue growth of over 40% in Q3. Other companies like Dengkang Oral Care and Bull Group are also expected to achieve significant revenue growth [2][10]. - The packaging sector, particularly Yutong Technology, is anticipated to see double-digit revenue and profit growth due to stable demand from major clients and international expansion [2][10]. Export Sector - Companies like Jiayi and Yongyi are expected to benefit from high demand in their respective markets, with projected revenue growth of over 30% in Q3 due to new customer orders and low base effects [2][10].