石油化工行业周报：伊以局势带动油价走高，原油基本面转淡但复苏预期增强，油价有望高位持稳

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [3]. Core Insights - The geopolitical situation in Israel and Palestine has led to a short-term increase in oil prices, with Brent crude rising from approximately $72 to nearly $80, reflecting a more rapid response to geopolitical factors than to fundamental changes [4][5]. - Despite a positive short-term outlook, the fundamental demand for crude oil is showing signs of weakening as the summer travel season ends, with U.S. crude and gasoline inventories increasing [7][11]. - The report anticipates that Brent crude will stabilize in the $70-$80 range due to OPEC's production cuts and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [11]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude futures closed at $78.05 per barrel, up 8.43% week-on-week, while NYMEX futures rose 9.09% to $74.38 per barrel [17]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased to 417 million barrels, with gasoline inventories rising to 221 million barrels [19][27]. - The number of active U.S. oil rigs decreased to 585, down 2 from the previous week [27]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products rose to $8.53 per barrel, an increase of $1.74 from the previous week [44]. - The price spread for U.S. gasoline RBOB against WTI crude was $12.46 per barrel, down $0.79 from the previous week [46]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as oil prices adjust [12]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have shown an upward trend, with the average price in East China reaching 4827.60 CNY per ton, up 1.39% week-on-week [66]. - The PX price increased to $841.93 per ton, reflecting a 1.12% rise [62]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is considered average, but there are signs of improvement in demand as the industry enters the peak season [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong [12]. - It also highlights the potential for growth in the polyester sector, particularly for companies like Tongkun Co., as demand improves [12]. - The report suggests that upstream oil companies like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation may see improved performance due to rising production and quality [12].