农林牧渔行业周观点:需求渐弱猪价小幅下跌,重视养殖盈利和景气持续性
2024-10-08 00:36

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the agricultural sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector has shown resilience with a 9.1% increase in the Shenwan Agricultural Index, outperforming the CSI 300 Index which rose by 8.5% [2][3]. - Focus on the pet food consumption trend and the commercialization of genetically modified corn is emphasized, with expectations for leading companies to gain market share and achieve sustained growth [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the harvest of genetically modified corn and its profit-sharing implications for companies as 2024 marks the first year of its commercial planting [2][3]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural Index increased by 9.1%, with notable stock performances including: - Top gainers: Jinlongyu (18.3%), Wancheng Group (17.2%), Guolian Aquatic Products (15.2%), Guobao Pet (15.1%), and Shenlian Biological (14.9%) [2][3][7]. - Bottom performers: *ST Aonong (3.2%), Shenliang B (3.3%), Jingliang B (4.1%), ST Tianbang (4.8%), and Jiahua Co. (6.0%) [2][3][7]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on the pet food sector, which continues to show strong consumption trends, and highlights the potential for leading domestic companies to increase their market share [2][3]. - The report also discusses the integrated pig farming leader Huadong, which is expanding its pig farming operations and optimizing production efficiency, leading to cost reductions [2][3]. Livestock Farming Insights - Pig farming is experiencing weak demand, with prices showing a slight decline. The average price for pigs was reported at 17.63 yuan/kg, down 0.73% week-on-week [2][3]. - The report indicates that while pig prices are declining, the current production cycle may extend due to limited recovery and expansion in production capacity [2][3]. - In chicken farming, the price of chicks has slightly decreased, and the prices for broilers and chicken meat continue to decline, indicating a challenging demand environment [2][3]. Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include: - Pet Food: Guobao Pet, Zhongchong Co., Petty Co. - Planting Chain: Longping High-Tech, Dabeinong, Denghai Seeds. - Breeding Chain: Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs [2][3].