美国9月劳动数据解读：美国劳动市场仍在“软着陆”道路上

Employment Data - In September, the U.S. added 254,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the market median expectation of 150,000 and the average of 181,000 from 2016-2019[1] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in August, better than the expected 4.2%[1] - Non-farm hourly wage growth rebounded to 3.97% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.37%[1] Labor Market Dynamics - The decline in the unemployment rate was primarily due to a decrease in non-temporary unemployment and a reduction in the number of people re-entering the labor force[1] - The labor force participation rate remained stable at 62.7%, with the participation rate for those aged 55 and above at 38.6%[1] - Part-time employment increased by 5.25% year-on-year, while full-time employment saw a slight recovery with a year-on-year decline of -0.36%[1] Economic Outlook - The resilience of the labor market supports the expectation of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, with the Federal Reserve likely to implement a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points in 2024[1] - Market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in November were abandoned following the labor data release, with a higher probability for 25 basis point cuts in November and December[1] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that traders expect a total of 100 basis points in rate cuts this year, aligning with the Fed's guidance[1]