交通运输行业：2024国庆国际航班再恢复，高铁表现亮眼

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry, specifically highlighting leading airlines such as China National Aviation and Southern Airlines, as well as companies like Juneyao Airlines and Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway [2][4]. Core Insights - During the 2024 National Day holiday (October 1-5), the total cross-regional passenger flow in China is expected to reach 1.463 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.78% and a 24.03% increase compared to 2019 [1][4]. - The civil aviation sector is experiencing significant growth in passenger transport volume, with an expected 11.4 million passengers during the holiday, which could exceed 15.65 million based on forecasts [1][2]. - The international flight volume is recovering, with a notable increase in demand for outbound travel, although domestic ticket prices are under pressure, showing a year-on-year decline of 21% [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. National Day Holiday Overview - The total cross-regional passenger flow is projected to reach 1.463 billion, with road, rail, and civil aviation passenger volumes at 1.35207 million, 92.72 million, and 11.4 million respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 2.37%, 6.63%, and 13.42% [1][4]. 2. Civil Aviation Sector - Civil aviation passenger transport volume is expected to reach 11.4 million during the holiday, with a flight volume of 81,025 flights, marking a 6.47% increase from 2023 and an 11.49% increase from 2019 [1][2]. - International flight recovery rates vary by destination, with some routes like Italy and Malaysia exceeding 120% of 2019 levels, while routes to the US remain at 25% [1][2]. 3. Road and Rail Transport - Rail passenger volume during the holiday is expected to reach 92.72 million, reflecting a 6.63% increase year-on-year, with high-speed rail demand showing strong performance due to improved network connectivity and changing consumer preferences [2][4]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading airlines such as China National Aviation and Southern Airlines, as well as companies like Juneyao Airlines and Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway [2][4].