房地产行业专题研究：地产物业行情复盘，当前估值仍处低位

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Views - The real estate sector has experienced a strong rebound since September 23, 2024, with A-share real estate up 31.2% and Hong Kong real estate up 36.3% [2] - Current valuations for both A-share and Hong Kong real estate are at historically low levels, with A-share PB at 0.78x and Hong Kong PB at 0.49x [2] - Historically, the real estate sector has experienced multiple rounds of outperformance lasting over a year, driven by policy easing and sales recovery [5] - The property management sector has also seen strong performance, with a 43.5% increase since September 23, 2024, and valuations at historically low levels [2] Real Estate Sector Review Market Performance - A-share real estate rose 9.2% on September 30, 2024, ranking 11th among sectors, with a cumulative increase of 31.2% since September 23, 2024, ranking 4th [8] - Hong Kong real estate rose 15.3% on October 4, 2024, ranking 6th among sectors, with a cumulative increase of 36.3% since September 23, 2024, ranking 6th [9] Valuation - As of September 30, 2024, A-share real estate PE TTM is 38.3x, at the 74.8% historical percentile, with a PB of 0.78x, at the 4.0% historical percentile [11] - As of October 4, 2024, Hong Kong real estate PB is 0.49x, at the 11.2% historical percentile [12] Historical Performance - The real estate sector has experienced multiple rounds of outperformance since 2008, driven by policy easing and sales recovery [13] - Notable periods include 2008-2009 (212.1% max gain, 95.0% excess return), 2012-2013 (45.8% max gain, 29.0% excess return), and 2014-2015 (274.6% max gain, 137.3% excess return) [14] Property Management Sector Review Market Performance - Hong Kong property management index rose 0.8% on October 4, 2024, with a cumulative increase of 43.5% since September 23, 2024, and a 15.8% excess return over the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index [15] Valuation - As of October 4, 2024, Hong Kong property management PE TTM is 9.8x, at the 1.4% historical percentile [16] Historical Performance - The property management sector had independent performance before 2020, but has since moved in line with the real estate sector [17] - The sector experienced a bull market from 2019-2020, with a maximum gain of 258.08% and a maximum excess return of 255.89% over the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index [17] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading real estate companies with low valuations, particularly those with strong land acquisition capabilities in first-tier and core second-tier cities [19] - Pay attention to real estate brokerage platforms with core competitiveness, benefiting from policy-driven market activity [19] - Consider real estate M&A opportunities encouraged by policy [19] - Focus on leading property management companies with scale advantages and high operational efficiency, as well as those with innovative value-added services and diversified business expansion [20]