2024年前三季度中国内地及香港IPO市场回顾与前景展望

Global Economic and Geopolitical Overview - The global capital markets have been impacted by negative factors such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Israel-Hamas war, tensions in the Middle East, delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and tariffs imposed by the US and Europe on Chinese products. However, subsequent interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, as well as the Federal Reserve's first rate cut, have helped improve market sentiment [1][2]. New Stock Market Overview - In the first three quarters of 2023, the Hong Kong new stock market saw a total of 41 new listings, including one large-scale IPO, which significantly improved the number of new stocks and financing amounts compared to the same period last year [6][8]. - The financing amount for new stocks in Hong Kong reached 1,389 million HKD, with the number of new stocks slightly exceeding the multi-year low of the previous year [8][12]. - The top five new stocks in the first three quarters were led by one large-scale IPO, with total financing increasing from 1,134 million HKD in the same period last year to 3,197 million HKD this year [11][12]. Financing Scale Analysis - The average financing scale for new stocks on the main board has dropped to its lowest level in years, with no large-scale IPOs this year. The average financing scale for 'D' new stocks was 1,354,000 HKD [22][21]. - The total financing amount for the main board reached 1,371 million HKD, with notable contributions from companies like Meidi Group and others [21][20]. Performance of New Stocks - The average first-day return rate for new stocks this year was 9.7%, outperforming the previous year's average of 8.4% [17][16]. - The proportion of new stocks listed with performance losses has significantly decreased, with only 13% of new stocks listed at a price-to-earnings ratio above 10 times, compared to over 30% last year [16][14]. Market Sentiment and Subscription Analysis - The overall oversubscription performance of new stocks has improved significantly compared to the same period last year, with the top five oversubscribed new stocks showing substantial increases in oversubscription multiples [24][25]. - The market sentiment has been influenced by predictions regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a more favorable environment for new listings [6][8].