对9月PMI和高频数据的思考及未来经济展望：工业产出或温和回升

PMI Performance - The September PMI composite index was 49.8%, up 0.7 percentage points from August's 49.1%[5] - Seasonally adjusted, the September PMI index was 49.6%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points[5] - Small enterprises showed significant improvement, with their PMI rising by 1.1 percentage points to 47.7%[19] Supply and Demand Indicators - Both supply and demand sub-indices improved, with the supply index rising by 0.7 percentage points and the demand index by 0.3 percentage points[21] - The new orders sub-index was at 49.7%, rebounding by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[21] - The production sub-index increased to 50.5%, a substantial rise of 0.7 percentage points[21] Economic Outlook - Industrial production is expected to see a mild recovery, supported by recent counter-cyclical adjustments and policy measures[57] - The GDP growth rate is projected to exceed 1.2%-1.3% in the upcoming quarter, indicating a return to a recovery trajectory[57] - High-frequency data, such as coal consumption for power generation, showed a 6.4% increase compared to the same period in 2019, suggesting improved industrial activity[38] Challenges in the Economy - High-frequency indicators related to infrastructure and real estate remain weak, with new housing sales down 19.4% year-on-year[49] - The container shipping price index dropped significantly, with a 23.6% decrease in September compared to August[54] - The overall economic environment is still affected by external demand uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, posing risks to recovery[8]