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策略点评:全球重估中国资产,港股空间广阔
Guolian Securities·2024-10-08 04:03

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant revaluation opportunity for Chinese assets, particularly Hong Kong stocks, which have emerged as the best-performing market globally year-to-date [2][5]. - The combination of the "9·24 policy package" and a positive tone from the September Politburo meeting has shifted the policy direction, creating a favorable environment for Chinese assets [2][5]. - With the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle and internal policy space opening up, both the numerator and denominator of Hong Kong stock valuations are expected to benefit, leading to potential further increases in stock prices [2][5]. Market Review - Following the "9·24 policy package," Chinese assets experienced a broad rally, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 13.0% and 20.2% respectively in the week of September 27, marking historical highs [5]. - During the holiday period, Hong Kong stocks continued to lead globally, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index gaining 10.2% and 17.4% in a single week [5]. - The report notes strong performance in sectors such as diversified finance, insurance, semiconductors, retail, media, and real estate, which saw the highest gains [5][10]. Catalysts - The report identifies the initiation of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle on September 18 as a key external catalyst that has positively influenced market sentiment [5]. - The September 24 announcement of various monetary policy measures, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, has significantly boosted market confidence [5][15]. - The Politburo's discussion on economic issues and commitment to enhancing counter-cyclical monetary and fiscal adjustments further solidified market optimism [5][15]. Market Outlook - Despite a substantial rebound over two weeks, Hong Kong stocks remain undervalued, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index trading at PE percentiles of 68.3% and 32.9%, respectively, indicating room for further appreciation [5][16]. - The report suggests that foreign capital is likely to be a significant source of incremental funds for the market, as evidenced by a notable increase in average daily trading volume reaching 378.1 billion HKD, a historical high [5][17]. - The focus on performance-driven investments indicates that sectors with healthy earnings fundamentals, such as information technology and consumer discretionary, are expected to outperform [5][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report advocates for a performance-oriented investment strategy, emphasizing the importance of earnings capability as a key differentiator in the market [5]. - Specific attention is drawn to leading internet companies like Alibaba, Kuaishou, and Meituan, which are anticipated to attract foreign investment and perform well under the influence of new capital inflows [5][10].