国债期货季报：政策大幅加码债市开始整理202410

Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Committee and Politburo meetings emphasized new productive forces and the need to achieve economic goals within the year[2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) warned against excessive bond speculation but did not implement significant measures to curb it[2] - Following the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, China initiated asymmetric rate cuts through OMO and MLF, promising to lower existing mortgage rates[2] - The September Politburo meeting led to urgent discussions on economic confidence, real estate, and employment, resulting in a series of stimulus directives[2] Market Performance - As of September 27, TS2412 rose by 0.45%, TF2412 by 0.92%, T2412 by 0.71%, and TL2412 by 2.63%[2] - Despite policy pressures, the bond futures market accelerated upward, indicating market expectations of weakening fundamentals[2] - The ten-year bond yield briefly surpassed 2.0% at the end of the quarter, reflecting market reactions to policy changes[2] Future Considerations - The fourth quarter is expected to focus on fiscal measures and their impact on demand, which may lead to a shift in the bond market towards consolidation[2] - There are uncertainties regarding whether a stimulus exceeding 10 trillion yuan will be implemented, which could be a key factor in the bond market dynamics[2] - The ongoing trade war and supply-side reforms are raising concerns about demand, necessitating strong fiscal stimulus to alleviate internal contradictions[2]