纯碱周报-宏观政策刺激超预期，情绪反转

Market Dynamics - The main contract for soda ash opened at 1573 CNY/ton and reached a weekly high of 1721 CNY/ton, closing at 1699 CNY/ton, marking a weekly increase of 7.6%[1] - Soda ash production reached 672,200 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons week-on-week, with a comprehensive capacity utilization rate of 80.64%, up by 1.25 percentage points[1] - Inventory levels for soda ash rose to 1.482 million tons, increasing by 83,000 tons from the previous week[1] Fundamental Analysis - The primary concern is the impact of macro pricing, pressure from new capacity, and the contradiction between potential domestic consumption recovery and resilient industrial supply[1] - The decline in the real estate cycle is suppressing demand for construction glass, limiting the growth potential for soda ash[1] - Despite a rigid demand for soda ash, the supply is expected to exceed demand due to new projects, leading to a bearish outlook[1] Summary - The market direction is characterized by wide fluctuations[1] - The core logic indicates a continuous decline in downstream demand, making future supply surplus difficult to reverse[1] - Risks include large-scale cold repairs in float glass production lines and underwhelming production from emerging downstream industries[1]