银行行业专题研究：存量按揭利率以及LPR下调对银行息差影响有多大？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector [3][6]. Core Insights - The recent policy measures aim to stabilize economic growth while maintaining bank interest margins. In the short term, these policies are expected to reduce the net interest margin (NIM) of listed banks by approximately 9.87 basis points (BP) in 2025. However, if these policies lead to an accelerated economic recovery, banks may benefit from improved macroeconomic conditions and asset quality, potentially restoring valuations [3][10][21]. Summary by Sections Policy Measures and Economic Stability - The recent policy package includes lowering existing mortgage rates and adjusting the minimum down payment ratio for housing loans. The average reduction in mortgage rates is expected to be around 50 BP [9][10]. - A reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5 percentage points is anticipated to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the financial market [9][10]. - The central bank has also lowered the policy interest rate by 20 BP, which is expected to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [18][21]. Impact on Net Interest Margin - The adjustment of existing mortgage rates is projected to lower the NIM of listed banks by 6.32 BP in 2025. This is due to the significant volume of early repayments and the disparity between existing and new mortgage rates [12][15]. - A 20 BP reduction in the LPR is expected to further decrease the NIM by 7.46 BP in 2025, with the overall impact on the asset side being a reduction of 0.81 BP in asset yield [18][20]. - The report indicates that the NIM for state-owned banks will be more adversely affected compared to joint-stock banks [20]. Dividend Yield and Investment Outlook - The current dividend yield for banking stocks is reported at 4.88%, which remains attractive compared to other asset classes. This suggests that despite the anticipated pressure on NIM, the banking sector still offers a favorable investment opportunity [3][10]. - Overall, the report expresses a positive outlook for the banking sector's future development, maintaining the "Outperform" rating [3][10].