从全球视野看氟制冷剂供应格局

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the refrigerant industry, particularly focusing on leading companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Jinshi Resources [12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant impact of the Montreal Protocol and its Kigali Amendment on the refrigerant industry, highlighting the global shift towards phasing out high GWP refrigerants. China plays a crucial role in the global supply chain, holding over 74% of the global HFCs production quota [11][14]. - The domestic market for third-generation refrigerants is expected to maintain a favorable outlook, with a projected supply gap for R22 and R32 in 2024, while R134a supply is anticipated to be relatively abundant [11][15]. - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to boost short-term demand for HFCs, with long-term growth prospects driven by increasing refrigerant needs in emerging markets [12][15]. Summary by Sections Global Refrigerant Industry Development and Supply Dynamics - The report outlines the historical development of refrigerants, noting the transition from CFCs to HCFCs and now to HFCs, driven by environmental regulations [19][22]. - It details the global supply capabilities of HFCs in 2024, with China, the US, and the EU being the major contributors [11][14]. China's HCFCs and HFCs Management - China's efforts in phasing out HCFCs and managing HFC quotas are highlighted, with specific projections for supply gaps in R22 and R32 for 2024 [11][15]. - The report notes that the 2025 quota plan has been established, indicating a structured approach to managing refrigerant supply [11]. International Developments - The report discusses the stricter regulations being implemented in developed economies, including the US and EU, regarding the phase-out of HFCs [12][15]. - It also mentions the current status of refrigerant supply in India and the Middle East, indicating a global trend towards stricter controls [11][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the fluorochemical industry that demonstrate strong performance in supply chain integration, infrastructure development, and technological advancements [12][15].