存量按揭利率以及LPR下调对银行息差影响有多大？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector [3][6]. Core Insights - The recent policy measures aim to stabilize economic growth while maintaining bank interest margins. In the short term, these policies are expected to reduce the net interest margin (NIM) of listed banks by approximately 9.87 basis points (BP) in 2025. However, if these policies lead to an accelerated economic recovery, banks may benefit from improved macroeconomic conditions and asset quality, potentially restoring valuations [3][10][21]. Summary by Sections Policy Measures and Economic Stability - The recent policy package includes lowering existing mortgage rates and adjusting the minimum down payment ratios to stabilize the economy and support banks [9][10]. - The central bank has also reduced the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the financial market [9][10]. Impact on Net Interest Margin - The reduction in existing mortgage rates is expected to lower the NIM of listed banks by 6.32 BP in 2025, with a potential further reduction of 7.46 BP if the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is cut by 20 BP [6][12][18]. - The report anticipates that the adjustment of mortgage rates will stabilize the mortgage loan scale, which is crucial for banks' asset quality [17]. Dividend Yield and Investment Outlook - The current dividend yield for banking stocks is 4.88%, which remains attractive compared to other asset classes, indicating a favorable investment opportunity in the banking sector [3][10]. - Overall, the report expresses a positive outlook for the banking industry, suggesting that the impact of the recent policies is neutral in the long term, with potential benefits from economic recovery [3][10].