基础化工行业深度研究：从全球视野看氟制冷剂供应格局

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the refrigerant industry, particularly focusing on leading companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Jinshi Resources [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant impact of the Montreal Protocol and its Kigali Amendment on the refrigerant industry, highlighting the global shift towards phasing out high GWP refrigerants. China plays a crucial role in the global supply chain, holding over 74% of the global HFCs production quota [5][8]. - The domestic market for third-generation refrigerants is expected to maintain a favorable outlook, with a projected supply gap for R22 and R32 in 2024, while R134a is anticipated to have a relatively abundant supply [5][9]. - The report indicates that the "old-for-new" policy in the air conditioning and automotive sectors is expected to boost short-term demand for HFCs, with long-term growth prospects remaining strong in emerging markets [5][9]. Summary by Sections Global Refrigerant Industry Development and Supply Dynamics - The refrigerant industry has evolved significantly over the past century, transitioning from CFCs to more environmentally friendly alternatives due to international regulations [13][16]. - The Montreal Protocol has been pivotal in controlling substances that deplete the ozone layer, leading to the gradual phase-out of CFCs and HCFCs [13][16]. China's Role in Refrigerant Supply - China is actively reducing HCFCs and managing HFCs quotas, with a production capacity that significantly influences global supply dynamics [5][8]. - The report forecasts a supply gap for R22 of approximately 12,600 tons and a notable shortage for R32 in 2024, while R134a is expected to be in surplus [5][9]. International Developments - Developed economies like the US, EU, and Japan are implementing stricter regulations to phase out HFCs, which may lead to increased demand for imports from China [5][9]. - The report highlights the ongoing need for HFCs in developed markets, with a significant portion of China's HFCs products being exported [5][9]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to focus on leading companies in the fluorochemical industry that demonstrate strong performance in supply chain integration, infrastructure development, and technological advancements [6].