国庆回顾：消费潜力释放，地产预期向好

Domestic Macro - During the National Day holiday, inter-regional personnel flow increased by 3% compared to the same period in 2023, indicating a release of consumption potential[4] - Civil aviation passenger volume rose by 13% and railway passenger volume increased by 7% compared to 2023, reflecting a significant rise in long-distance travel demand[4] - The total box office for the first six days of the National Day holiday was 1.95 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, primarily due to lower average ticket prices[4] Real Estate Market - Following the adjustment of housing purchase restrictions in major cities, sales in first-tier cities showed signs of recovery, with promotional activities leading to a 50% increase in visitor numbers in many projects[4] - The total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities during the first five days of the holiday was 300,700 square meters, down from 361,500 square meters in the same period last year[4] - In Guizhou, the total sales of commercial housing reached 137,500 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 44.3%[4] Overseas Macro - In September, the U.S. added 254,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of around 150,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%[4] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for September was 47.2, slightly below expectations, while the services PMI was 54.9, indicating robust service sector activity[4] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated, leading to a significant increase in oil prices, with WTI crude futures rising by 8.1% and Brent crude by 9.1% during the week[4] Policy Outlook - Future fiscal policies are expected to focus on supporting consumption, particularly in the service sector, and may include personal income tax reductions and subsidies for low-income families[8] - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain accommodative, with a potential 25-50 basis points reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates by the end of the year[8]