近期美欧开启降息潮，人民币或继续升值

Exchange Rate Trends - In September 2024, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated between 7.1236 and 7.0202, showing a stable upward trend with an increase of 663 basis points from 7.0881 to 7.0218[2] - The offshore RMB rate rose from 7.0906 to 7.0332, accumulating an increase of 574 basis points[2] - The anticipated Fed rate cut and actual cut of 50 basis points on September 18, 2024, further boosted the RMB, with an increase of 675 basis points observed by September 25, 2024[3] Influencing Factors - The Fed's rate cut to a target range of 4.75% to 5.00% was unexpected, as the market anticipated a 25 basis point cut, which contributed to the RMB's appreciation[3] - Domestic economic indicators showed a slowdown, with PMI and retail sales declining, putting short-term pressure on the RMB[3] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 20 basis point policy rate reduction, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market[3] Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to fluctuate between 6.80 and 7.22 in October 2024, influenced by both domestic and international factors[1] - The ongoing interest rate cuts in Western economies are expected to support the RMB[4] - Despite the pressure from the inverted yield curve between US and Chinese bonds, the liquidity released from rate cuts is likely to favor the RMB's stability[5]