Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in aluminum production with a comprehensive integrated supply chain, including bauxite mining, alumina production, electrolytic aluminum, and deep processing of aluminum products [2][14]. - The company achieved a revenue of 73.59 billion RMB in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, and a net profit of 9.16 billion RMB, up 272.7% year-on-year, driven by rising aluminum prices and decreasing raw material costs [2][19]. - The domestic supply of bauxite is tightening, leading to increased reliance on imports, which enhances the resource attributes at the mining level and benefits the company due to its overseas resource layout [2][27]. - The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, with limited supply growth expected, while demand from new energy vehicles and the power sector is anticipated to provide a boost, leading to a favorable long-term supply-demand balance [2][26]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a cumulative dividend of 38.17 billion RMB since its listing in 2011 and an average payout ratio of 47.2% over the past five years [2][24]. Summary by Sections 1. High Elasticity and High Dividends, Leading Integrated Layout in Electrolytic Aluminum - The company has a global leading position in electrolytic aluminum production with a complete integrated supply chain [2][14]. - In H1 2024, the company’s revenue and net profit saw significant increases, attributed to favorable market conditions [2][19]. - The company has consistently maintained a high dividend payout, reflecting its stable financial performance [2][24]. 2. Electrolytic Aluminum Industry: Capacity Approaching Ceiling, Tightening Supply at the Mining Level - The domestic supply of bauxite is becoming increasingly constrained, leading to a higher dependency on imports [2][27]. - The report highlights the limited growth in electrolytic aluminum supply due to capacity constraints and the anticipated demand from emerging sectors [2][26]. 3. Advantages of Integrated Layout, Full Release of Profit Elasticity - The company’s strategic overseas resource layout positions it well to benefit from rising bauxite prices [2][27]. - The report projects continued growth in the company’s profitability due to its cost advantages and market positioning [2][3]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 19 billion RMB, 20.2 billion RMB, and 21.4 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 6x [2][3].
中国宏桥：高弹性高分红，电解铝一体化布局行业领先