浦银国际联合解读：如何把握本轮行情？

Macro Analysis - The report anticipates continued policy stimulus, particularly in fiscal and real estate sectors, with expectations of issuing 2-3 trillion yuan in special bonds to stimulate consumption and mitigate local debt risks [1][6][10] - The government may introduce tax or social security incentives to help low-income groups increase disposable income to support consumption [1][11] - The report suggests that the scale of this round of policy stimulus may exceed previous measures since the policy shift began in the second half of last year [6][10] Strategy - The current market focus is on policy developments, and if unexpected fiscal policies are introduced, the market rally is likely to continue [1][6] - As of October 2, 2024, the Hang Seng Index's forward P/E ratio is at 10.2 times, returning to the average of the past five years, which may attract foreign capital inflows [1][6] - The report predicts that the initial phase of the market rally will be driven by valuation recovery, with high beta stocks performing well; mid-term may see consolidation with alpha stocks outperforming; and later stages may return to fundamentals with core assets regaining investor attention [1][6] Consumer Sector - The investment logic in the current market is primarily focused on "bargain hunting," with attention on domestic demand-driven consumer companies [1][6] - Consumer sectors that previously experienced significant declines and are perceived to face fundamental and growth challenges have shown strong performance in this rally [1][6] - The report emphasizes that the recovery of consumer fundamentals will lag behind market sentiment, indicating potential risks and uncertainties for future performance [1][6] - Key recommended stocks include Pop Mart (9992.HK), China Feihe (6186.HK), Anta Sports (2020.HK), Genscript Biotech (2367.HK), and Teha International (9658.HK/HDL.US) [1][6] Internet Sector - The significant rise in internet sector stock prices is primarily driven by market sentiment returning due to policy support, with a more optimistic rebound than expected [1][6] - Short-term profit-taking pressure exists, but the medium to long-term upward trend remains clear, with valuations still at low levels [1][6] - The report highlights three advantages: profit improvement, low valuations, and dividends/buybacks, combined with liquidity release, creating a safety margin [1][6] - Preferred stocks for selection include leading companies like Tencent and Alibaba, high-growth yet undervalued stocks like Pinduoduo, and companies closely aligned with consumer recovery like Meituan [1][6] Technology Sector - The technology sector, particularly consumer electronics and semiconductors, has recorded positive returns ranging from 8% to 50% following policy announcements [2][6] - The report indicates that the smartphone market is still in a recovery growth phase, and the semiconductor sector's fundamentals are expected to improve in the second half of the year [2][6] - Recommended stocks with valuation or rebound potential include Transsion Holdings, BYD Electronics, Luxshare Precision, Sunny Optical, and Times Electric [2][6] New Energy Vehicle Sector - The report notes that the fundamentals of Chinese new energy vehicle companies have generally improved, aligning with recent surveys indicating higher penetration rates and sales exceeding initial forecasts [2][6] - The report remains optimistic about new model increments, plug-in hybrid market momentum, and the long-term growth potential of new energy vehicles [2][6] - Recommended stocks with valuation upside include NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, and BYD, while Leap Motor and Li Auto show potential for fundamental improvement [2][6] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector has rebounded significantly, with the MSCI China Pharmaceutical Index rising 25.3% from September 24 to October 3, outperforming the broader market [2][6] - The report attributes this outperformance to the sector's previous deep declines and overall undervaluation, coupled with improved market sentiment following the onset of the US dollar interest rate cut cycle [2][6] - The report maintains a positive outlook for the innovative drug sector in the second half of 2024, recommending focus on innovative drugs, high-value consumables, and medical devices [2][6]