2024年国庆假期消费数据点评：量维持高位，价回归平稳

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the social services industry, particularly in the context of the 2024 National Day holiday consumption data [2]. Core Insights - The travel willingness during the 2024 National Day holiday remains high, with a stable average spending per person. The total domestic travel volume reached 765 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, and a 10.2% increase compared to the same period in 2019. Total spending by domestic tourists was 700.82 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.3% and a 7.9% increase compared to 2019 [2][6]. - Hotel prices have stabilized, with a slight increase compared to last year, indicating a trend of "increased volume with slight price decline." The average hotel occupancy rate during the holiday was 69.78%, up 10.57 percentage points year-on-year [2][15]. - The outbound travel market is recovering, with flight prices returning to rational levels. The top ten outbound travel destinations include Japan, Thailand, and South Korea, with significant growth in demand from lower-tier cities [24][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Travel - The travel volume during the National Day holiday was 765 million trips, with a total expenditure of 700.82 billion yuan, showing significant growth compared to previous years [6][11]. - Daily average cross-regional personnel flow reached 208 million, a 4.1% increase year-on-year [11]. 2. Domestic Tourism - The trend of diversified travel destinations is evident, with hotel prices stabilizing and occupancy rates increasing, particularly in economy and mid-range hotels [15][19]. - Popular destinations include major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, with a notable increase in visitor numbers to scenic spots [19][20]. 3. Outbound Tourism - The recovery of outbound tourism is marked by a return to 80% of pre-pandemic flight levels, with a notable increase in travel from lower-tier cities [24][25]. - The average spending on outbound travel is increasing, with a shift towards higher-end travel products [25]. 4. Retail Consumption - The retail market during the National Day holiday was vibrant, with significant sales growth in key provinces and cities, driven by promotional activities [29][30]. - The "old-for-new" policy boosted appliance sales, with a notable increase in consumer participation [29]. 5. Key Conclusions and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the tourism and hospitality sectors, including scenic spots, hotels, and e-commerce platforms, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in consumer spending [31][32].