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新华保险:三季报业绩弹性超预期,重申推荐
NCINCI(SH:601336)2024-10-09 04:09

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New China Life Insurance [4][5] Core Views - The third-quarter performance of New China Life Insurance exceeded expectations, with a projected net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 estimated between 186.07 billion to 205.15 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 95% to 115% [4] - The significant recovery in the capital market has led to a notable increase in investment income, contributing to the company's strong performance [4] - The company has benefited from a favorable equity market environment, with the CSI 300 Index and the CSI 800 Index both rising by 16.1% since September 24, 2024 [4] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Projected operating revenue for 2024 is 88,270.72 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 23.37% [6] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is 21,416.65 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 145.83% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be 6.87 yuan [6] Investment Analysis - The report highlights New China Life Insurance as a high-elasticity choice within the insurance sector, characterized by high asset elasticity, significant growth potential on the liability side, and strong beta attributes [5] - The profit performance in the third quarter was above expectations, prompting an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2024 to 214.17 billion yuan [5] - As of October 8, 2024, the stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings value (PEV) of 0.57x for 2024, reinforcing the "Buy" rating [5]