Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Recommended" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector in the next six months [28]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a decline of 0.79% last week, primarily due to market concerns over stricter medical insurance cost control. However, there is an expectation for a rebound in the CXO sector due to the absence of the bioterrorism bill in the Senate NDAA and the initiation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3]. - The report highlights that the approval rate for drugs outside the national medical insurance catalog has dropped below 50%, which is a significant decrease compared to previous years. Despite this, there is ongoing support for innovative drugs, suggesting that the negotiations for the medical insurance catalog will still favor high-quality innovative drugs with clear clinical efficacy [2][3]. Industry Performance Tracking - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector ranked last among 31 primary industries, with a decline of 0.79% compared to a 1.32% increase in the CSI 300 index during the same period [4]. - Notable stock performances included Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical (+33.00%) and Haichuang Pharmaceutical-U (+19.67%), while Hainan Haiyao (-27.07%) and Yingke Medical (-21.08%) faced significant declines [4]. - As of September 20, the sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 22.02x, which is below the median level since 2010, indicating a valuation premium of 76.24% compared to the overall A-share market [5]. Industry Dynamics and Key Company Tracking - The report discusses the advancement of the Sanming medical reform, which is transitioning to a new phase of consolidation and enhancement, aiming to guide other regions in implementing similar reforms [6]. - The National Medical Products Administration is exploring segmented production models for innovative and urgently needed biological products, which may enhance the domestic pharmaceutical industry's capabilities [6]. - Beijing has introduced new policies to improve the accessibility of rare disease medications, indicating a proactive approach to healthcare challenges [7]. Industry Data Tracking - From January to July 2024, the basic medical insurance fund's income reached 1,575.493 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.02%. However, the expenditure during the same period was 1,382.892 billion yuan, showing a higher growth rate of 14.87% [11]. - The domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing industry reported a cumulative revenue of 1,414.4 billion yuan from January to July 2024, marking a slight decline of 0.80% year-on-year [15].
医药生物行业周报:生物安全法案未被纳入参议院NDAA,CXO短期有望迎来反弹
Guodu Securities·2024-10-09 14:01