Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - The Federal Reserve has reported a loss exceeding $200 billion, with a current deficit of $201.2 billion as of October 2, 2024, primarily due to interest payments to financial institutions during the rate hike cycle[2] - The IMF forecasts a significant economic impact from escalating conflicts in the Middle East, predicting an 86% GDP decline in Gaza and a 25% decline in the West Bank for the first half of 2024[1] - Global foreign exchange reserve managers sold $155 billion in dollar assets in Q2 2024, marking the largest sell-off since Q3 2023, driven by a rebound in the dollar[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators in the US - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for September is reported at 47.2, below the expected 47.5, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI reached 54.9, the highest since February 2023[2] - Non-farm payrolls increased by 254,000 in September, surpassing the expected 140,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%, the lowest since June 2024[2] Group 3: European Economic Developments - The Eurozone's September CPI preliminary value shows a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, matching expectations, but a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, the largest drop since January 2024[3] - Germany's September Manufacturing PMI final value is reported at 40.6, exceeding expectations of 40.3[4] Group 4: China's Economic Performance - China's R&D expenditure for 2023 reached ¥33,357.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, positioning it as the second-largest globally after the US[11] - The official Manufacturing PMI for China in September is reported at 49.8, a 0.7 percentage point increase from the previous month, marking the first rise in five months[12]
全球宏观经济周报：美联储亏损超2千亿美元 中国研发经费规模居世界第二
2024-10-09 14:31