摩根士丹利：反弹能否成为反转！货币有了，财政还会远吗？

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive shift in policy towards addressing deflation, suggesting a potential for investment opportunities in the near future [2][4][5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes a significant change in the policy approach to combat deflation, drawing parallels to previous major policy shifts in response to economic challenges [4][5][6] - It highlights the importance of fiscal stimulus, estimating an additional fiscal support of approximately 1 to 2 trillion RMB to boost consumption and support local governments [6][7][9] - The report suggests that while immediate fiscal measures may be moderate, the recognition of deflation as a critical issue marks a substantial shift in policy mindset [5][6][8] Summary by Sections Policy Shift - The report notes a clear transition in policy focus towards addressing deflation, with decision-makers acknowledging the need for urgent action [4][5][6] - It identifies key moments that contributed to this shift, including high-level discussions and public forums that emphasized the importance of tackling deflation [4][5] Fiscal Policy - The anticipated fiscal expansion is expected to range from 1 to 2 trillion RMB, aimed at enhancing consumer spending and addressing local government debt issues [6][7][9] - The report indicates that the fiscal measures will likely include support for consumption and social welfare, reflecting a shift from traditional supply-side policies [6][7] Economic Outlook - The report predicts a gradual recovery in GDP growth, with expectations of a rise from an annualized rate of 3% to around 5% in the coming quarters [7][9] - It emphasizes that while the immediate impact of fiscal measures may be limited, they are crucial for stabilizing the economy and preventing further decline [6][9] Market Reaction - The report observes a positive market response to the policy announcements, with a notable increase in stock market indices reflecting renewed investor confidence [10][11] - It highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the Chinese market, suggesting that the market could return to a price-to-earnings ratio of around 12 times if fiscal policies are effectively implemented [10][11]