A 股见“大底”了吗？（中金报告）

Investment Rating - The report suggests that the A-share market may have reached a "big bottom," with a strong rebound observed in major indices, indicating a potential turning point after a prolonged adjustment period since early 2021 [2][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the A-share market is currently experiencing a phase where auxiliary signals have emerged, policy signals are beginning to show, and fundamental signals may still require further observation [3][17]. - Historical analysis indicates that significant market bottoms typically follow a sequence of policy support leading to market stabilization and eventual improvement in fundamentals, as seen in past cycles [51][52]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring policy signals, particularly fiscal measures, as they are expected to play a crucial role in supporting market recovery and improving investor confidence [4][29]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The A-share market is rated positively due to recent strong performance, with major indices achieving significant weekly gains, suggesting a potential bottom formation [2][10]. Market Stage - The current market stage is characterized by the emergence of auxiliary signals, the beginning of policy signals, and a wait for fundamental signals to improve [3][17]. Historical Bottom Formation - Historical patterns show that market bottoms often occur after a combination of policy intervention and subsequent economic recovery, with examples from 2008, 2012, and 2016 illustrating this trend [51][52]. Policy Signals - Recent policy announcements from the State Council and the Central Political Bureau have indicated a commitment to stabilizing growth and supporting the capital market, which is expected to enhance market sentiment [4][29]. Fundamental Signals - The report notes that while auxiliary and policy signals are present, fundamental signals may take longer to materialize, with current economic conditions indicating a prolonged bottoming process [17][19]. Valuation Signals - Valuation metrics indicate that the A-share market is currently at low levels, with significant safety margins observed in various indices, suggesting potential for recovery [33][35]. Fund Flow Signals - Recent data shows a reversal in fund flow signals, with increased trading volumes and improved market sentiment following policy announcements, indicating a potential shift in investor behavior [38][39]. Behavioral Signals - The report identifies recent adjustments in previously strong sectors as a typical behavior signal of nearing market bottoms, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [47][48].