摩根大通-中国-复盘A股九月表现 (2)

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" (buy) rating for the industry [22][27]. Core Insights - China equities experienced a strong rebound in September due to a combination of stimulus measures announced by the PBOC, CSRC, and CBIRC, alongside expectations for further fiscal support [3][6]. - The CSI300, CSI500, and CSI1000 indices rose by 21%, 24%, and 23% respectively, while the HSI and HSCEI increased by 17% and 19% [3]. - The sustainability of the rally is contingent on the anticipated size of the fiscal package, with macro data and earnings revisions being closely monitored [3][9]. Market Performance - Key sector performance showed Real Estate (37%), IT (25%), and Consumer Staples (24%) as the top three performing sectors, driven by improving liquidity, fiscal support, and retail excitement [7][8]. - Conversely, Utilities (8%), Energy (11%), and Telecom (12%) were the bottom three sectors, as investors shifted focus to higher-beta sectors [8]. Economic Data - China's August retail sales grew by 2.1% year-on-year, which was below expectations, while fixed investment rose by 3.4% year-on-year [17][20]. - Industrial production increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with notable growth in electricity production and electronic equipment [17][20]. - The trade surplus with the U.S. widened to US$91.0 billion, with exports growing by 8.7% year-on-year [17][20]. Fund Flows and Financing - For the four weeks ending September 20, EPFR-tracked funds recorded a net outflow of US$547 million from A-shares, with active funds contributing US$382 million to this outflow [9][10]. - A-share margin financing as a percentage of market cap remained at 2%, while gross margin buys increased to 10.5% [9][10]. Fund Issuance - Preliminary data indicated that equity fund issuance rose to Rmb22 billion in September, while balanced fund issuance remained low at Rmb0.6 billion [10]. - Year-to-date equity fund issuance totaled Rmb99 billion, which is below the median of Rmb107 billion from 2016 to 2023 [10].