摩根士丹利：半导体周刊-对潜在新贸易限制的思考；NVDA 路线图；8 月 SIA

Investment Rating - Industry View for Semiconductor Capital Equipment: Attractive [1] - North America Industry View: Cautious [1] Core Insights - Investor expectations for new semiconductor export controls are anticipated, with potential announcements expected soon, following a historical pattern [1] - NVIDIA's roadmap changes are not expected to significantly impact revenue trends, which remain strong, with a focus on products that align with customer demand [2] - August Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) billings data exceeded expectations, with sales up 15.4% month-over-month, surpassing the estimate of 11.2% growth [2] Summary by Sections Export Controls and Market Sentiment - New export controls for semiconductor capital equipment and computing are likely to be announced soon, with historical precedence for such announcements [1] - Messaging from the Commerce Department indicates challenges with rules-based controls, suggesting a shift towards company-specific restrictions [1] NVIDIA and Market Performance - Adjustments to NVIDIA's roadmap are viewed as inconsequential, with strong demand for existing products [2] - NVIDIA remains a top pick in semiconductors, with expectations of continued strong business trends through CY25 [2] SIA Monthly Data - August SIA data showed stronger-than-expected performance across logic and memory segments, with notable growth in the Americas (+59.0%) and China (+25.7%) [2] - The overall semiconductor sales for August reached $56.159 billion, reflecting a 15.4% year-over-year increase [11] Memory Market Insights - DRAM sales increased significantly, with a month-over-month growth of 66.2%, while NAND sales were up 38.3% [6] - The memory market is experiencing volatility, with expectations of modest deceleration in September due to weak overall demand [7] Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry is seen as bottoming out, with a return to growth expected in CY24 compared to CY23, driven by inventory drawdowns and strong demand in data center markets [8] - Forecasts for CY24 project a growth rate of 19.4%, with a slight increase from previous estimates [7]