摩根士丹利：美国经济_强劲就业--25bps

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the labor market, suggesting potential for 25 basis points rate cuts in the upcoming FOMC meetings [1][2]. Core Insights - The labor market has shown signs of reacceleration, with payrolls increasing by 254,000 and prior months revised up by a cumulative 72,000. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% [1]. - Average hourly earnings remained strong at 0.4%, indicating robust labor demand and payroll incomes, which are expected to support consumption into the fourth quarter [1][2]. - The report highlights a rebound in the services sector, particularly in retail and professional services, despite ongoing weakness in manufacturing [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Employment Report Summary - Establishment survey payrolls showed a change of 254,000 in September, with an average of 251,000 for 2023 and 267,000 for the first quarter of 2024 [5]. - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month, with a 12-month change of 4.3% [5]. - The unemployment rate averaged 3.6% for 2023, with a slight decrease to 4.1% in September [5]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate remained flat, while the employment-population ratio was reported at 60.3% [5]. - The report notes a downward bias in household survey employment estimates, with a significant difference between payroll benchmark revisions and household survey measures [1][5]. - The upcoming payroll report for October may be affected by strikes and hurricane impacts, but these are viewed as temporary interruptions rather than a cooling labor market [1][2].