摩根士丹利：石油数据摘要-美国石油供应与需求
2024-10-08 08:26

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it provides insights into supply and demand dynamics that could influence investment decisions. Core Insights - US oil demand showed positive year-on-year growth in July, increasing by 440 kb/d, driven by stronger summer travel fuel demand [2][31] - US crude production remained flat in July at 13.2 mb/d, with annual production growth slowing to 340 kb/d [2][4] - The report highlights a potential rebound in shale production towards year-end, with several major producers raising their 2024 production guidance [6][7] Supply Dynamics - US oil demand increased by 2% YoY in July, reaching 20.5 mb/d, with total demand up 50 kb/d year-to-date compared to 2023 [31] - US crude imports rose by 460 kb/d in July, reaching 7.1 mb/d, while crude exports fell by 40 kb/d [18][19] - Total US crude stocks decreased by 10.5 million barrels in July, consistent with seasonal patterns [94] Production Insights - Shale production declined by 45 kb/d MoM in July, primarily due to Hurricane Beryl impacting Texas and North Dakota [4][6] - The US rig count remained flat in July, with only one additional rig added [3][8] - Refinery runs dropped by 250 kb/d in July, attributed to Hurricane Beryl and unplanned maintenance [27][60] Demand Trends - Finished products demand rose by 480 kb/d MoM in July, with gasoline demand increasing by 180 kb/d [33][35] - Jet fuel demand surged by 110 kb/d MoM, reflecting strong summer travel [49][51] - Middle distillate demand increased by 100 kb/d MoM, marking the first positive annual growth for diesel this year [47][49] Inventory Changes - Finished product inventories rose by 4.9 million barrels MoM, driven by high refinery output and lower exports [95][96] - Jet fuel inventories reached an all-time high of 46.5 million barrels due to oversupply despite robust demand [95][96] - The crude adjustment factor for July was -425 kb/d, indicating a downward revision in crude supply or an upward revision in demand [111]