Workflow
摩根大通：美国清洁能源税收股票市场更新_2024年增长强劲，项目不利因素可能对2025年造成影响
2024-10-08 08:26

Investment Rating - The report indicates a healthy growth outlook for the US tax equity market in 2024, with expectations of a 15-20% year-over-year increase, reaching approximately $35 billion in total funding, up from around $30 billion in 2023 [2][3]. Core Insights - The US tax equity market is expected to experience strong growth in 2024, driven by a healthy appetite from traditional tax equity providers and large corporations, with a diversified approach to monetizing clean energy tax credits [2]. - The 2025 market is anticipated to be relatively flat due to permitting and interconnection challenges, but the pipeline for 2026 and 2027 remains robust [2]. - The upcoming US election and the revised Basel III proposal are not expected to materially impact the market, with projects including clauses to protect tax equity investors from potential tax code changes [2]. Summary by Sections Market Growth - The US tax equity market is projected to grow by 15-20% year-over-year in 2024, with total funding expected to reach nearly $35 billion [2]. - The growth is attributed to three main avenues for monetizing clean energy tax credits: traditional tax equity partnerships ($18-20 billion), hybrid tax equity partnerships ($10-12 billion), and pure tax credit transfers ($5-6 billion) [2]. Future Outlook - The 2025 tax equity market is expected to be flat due to project deployment caps from lengthy permitting and interconnection queues, although the appetite for tax equity remains strong [2]. - The pipeline for 2026 and 2027 is viewed positively, with expectations of slight upticks in wind and manufacturing facility credits [2]. Regulatory Environment - The report notes minimal election-related impacts for 2024 and 2025 projects, with ongoing revisions to the Basel III proposal expected to support renewable tax equity [2]. - The manufacturing tax credit transfer pricing remains strong, with expectations of stability in the residential solar tax equity asset class despite recent bankruptcies [2].