摩根士丹利：非洲矿产_锰矿仍看涨

Investment Rating - The investment rating for African Rainbow Minerals is Overweight with a price target set at ZAc 22,000 [1][3]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses increased confidence in manganese prices due to Chinese stimulus measures, which are expected to drive prices higher before GEMCO restarts [1][6]. - The report anticipates a 17% upside to spot revenues through 1Q25, driven by manganese price increases [1][19]. - The earnings estimates for FY25 have been reduced by 43% due to lower commodity prices and a stronger ZAR [1][19]. Summary by Sections Price Target and Valuation - The price target for African Rainbow Minerals has been adjusted from ZAc 250,000 to ZAc 220,000 based on updated commodity price forecasts [1][19]. - The report indicates that ARM trades at an attractive P/E ratio of less than 5x based on the revised EPS estimates [1][19]. Earnings and Revenue Projections - For FY25, the expected EPS is ZAc 38.59, reflecting a significant decrease from previous estimates [1][19]. - Revenue projections for FY25 are expected to be ZAR 11,788 million, with EBITDA estimated at ZAR 9,085 million [1][19]. Commodity Price Outlook - Manganese prices are projected to reach $12/dmtu by 1Q25, influenced by Chinese alloy prices and supply disruptions [1][14]. - The report highlights that manganese ore prices have significant upside potential, with expectations of a 50% increase from current levels [1][10]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that manganese is essential in steel production, with no substitutes available, making it susceptible to supply disruptions [1][6]. - The relationship between manganese ore and alloy prices is emphasized, with current ore prices being relatively low compared to historical levels [1][12]. Financial Metrics - The report provides detailed financial metrics, including projected sales volumes for iron ore and manganese, as well as platinum and palladium sales for the upcoming years [4][5]. - Key earnings inputs include iron ore sales volumes projected at 14,723,000 tons for 2024 and manganese sales at 4,432,000 tons [4].