摩根大通：外汇技术更新市场在短暂尝试为顺周期机制定价后出现回调

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the currencies analyzed, but it discusses potential bullish and bearish trends for various currency pairs, indicating a focus on pro-cyclical trades and market recovery [1][3][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of key resistance and support levels for various currency pairs, suggesting that sustained movements above or below these levels could indicate significant market trends [1][3][6][9][11][13]. Summary by Currency Pair USD/CNH - The USD/CNH pair is currently in a critical bifurcation zone between 7.078 and 7.108, with a tactical rebound from this support potentially favoring a bullish trend [1][5]. - A sustained break below 7.075 would reinforce a bullish macro outlook, while a move above 7.1367 could target higher resistance levels [3][5]. USD/CLP - The USD/CLP pair is also at a key medium-term bifurcation zone, with resistance observed between 928.33 and 939.42. A bearish reversal here could maintain a longer-term cycle top structure [6]. - Key support levels are identified at 882.65-883.27, with a move below indicating a significant pro-cyclical rotation [6]. AUD/USD - The AUD/USD pair has recently whipsawed back into the 2023-2024 range after a brief breakout attempt. Holding above the 0.6716-0.6745 support could keep the pro-cyclical trend intact [8]. - A break above 0.68-0.6901 would indicate a base pattern breakout, potentially leading to a rally acceleration [8]. EUR/USD - The EUR/USD pair has fallen from the 1.125-1.1294 resistance zone to test the 1.093-1.0981 support zone. A sustained break below 1.09 could lead to significant downside [9]. - The report suggests that the pair may stabilize at the current support level, with the fourth quarter being critical for its outlook [9]. GBP/USD - The GBP/USD pair is approaching expected support near 1.30, with a bounce anticipated from this level. A break below 1.2827-1.2928 would indicate further downside potential [11][12]. - Tactical resistance is noted at 1.3236, with the pair's recent movements lacking clear evidence of a trend reversal [11]. USD/JPY - The USD/JPY pair is extending its bounce from key support near 140, with resistance expected near the 150-151 range. The report indicates that this could form the right shoulder of a potential multi-quarter cycle-top pattern [13]. - Tactical support is identified at 146.495-147.17, with a rally expected to fade near the key resistance levels [13].