摩根士丹利：中国的“第二支箭”仍未射出

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The fiscal package from the Chinese government is expected to be limited, with a focus on infrastructure investment rather than direct consumer demand stimulus. The Ministry of Finance may provide further details on local debt resolution and financial risk prevention in the coming weeks [1]. - Growth expectations for the Chinese economy are modest, with a projected sequential growth improvement to 5% QoQ SAAR in 4Q24-1Q25, up from 3% in 2Q-3Q24. However, sustainable reflation requires a larger fiscal package, estimated at around 10 trillion yuan, focusing on consumption, debt restructuring, and housing [1]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Package and Demand Stimulus - The report indicates that the fiscal package is unlikely to be substantial, with the consumption portion expected to undershoot. The government plans to front-load 200 billion yuan for infrastructure investment and implement a consumer goods trade-in program without specifying additional funding [1]. Growth Projections - The report anticipates a modest sequential growth improvement in the Chinese economy, projecting a rise to 5% QoQ SAAR in 4Q24-1Q25 from 3% in 2Q-3Q24. It emphasizes that meaningful reflation will require a larger fiscal package [1].