亚马逊10月大促效果平淡，竞争和提升商家收费是阻碍

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1]. Core Insights - Amazon's fall sale on October 8-9, 2024, named Amazon Prime Deal Day, was relatively flat in performance due to increasing competition for traffic and the introduction of merchant fees [2][9]. - The fall sale aimed to fill the gap between the summer and Black Friday sales, marking the fourth time Amazon has held such an event in October [3]. - Compared to the summer Prime Day, the scale of the fall sale was smaller, with 2023 Prime Day sales reaching $12.7 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase, while 2024 sales reached $14.2 billion, an 11% increase [3][4]. - The estimated GMV contribution from the fall sale is approximately $5 billion, accounting for about 2.3% of the quarterly GMV [4]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - Amazon's fall sale was held to bridge the gap between summer and Black Friday sales, with a focus on exclusive discounts for Prime members across various product categories [3]. - The event covered 19 countries, fewer than the 23 countries during the summer sale [3]. Sales Performance - Historical sales data shows that Amazon's Prime Day sales have seen significant growth since its inception in 2015, but growth has slowed post-2020 due to pandemic and inflation impacts [3]. - The 2023 Prime Big Deal Day saw over 150 million items sold, with a 16% year-over-year sales increase, but did not reach the scale of the summer Prime Day [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights that competition from other retailers, such as Walmart and Best Buy, has intensified, impacting Amazon's sales performance [7]. - The introduction of a pitfall fee for merchants participating in promotional events has also reduced their willingness to engage [7]. Financial Projections - As of October 9, 2024, Amazon's market capitalization was $1.92 trillion, with a stock price of $185 [7]. - Revenue growth projections for Amazon from 2023 to 2026 are expected to average 10.7%, with AWS revenue projected to grow at 18.1% [8].