高盛：中国房地产_加速城市更新投资是长期利好；短期财政刺激仍是关键

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the China real estate sector, emphasizing the importance of fiscal stimulus in the near term [1][3]. Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has committed to accelerating urban renewal investments, with a focus on infrastructure projects, including a significant Rmb4 trillion budget for underground pipeline construction over the next five years [1][3]. - The NDRC aims to stabilize the property market through a combination of supply-side and demand-side measures, including inventory management and adjustments to housing policy regulations [1][3]. - The report highlights the necessity of fiscal stimulus as a key factor influencing the housing market's recovery in the coming weeks [1][3]. Summary by Sections Urban Renewal Investment - The NDRC plans to front-load Rmb200 billion in investment projects by the end of October 2024, with a total of Rmb4 trillion earmarked for urban renewal infrastructure over the next five years [3][4]. - The focus will be on critical construction projects that align with national strategies, particularly the development of an urban underground pipeline network [3][4]. Housing Market Stabilization - On the supply side, the NDRC will implement strict controls on new housing supply and optimize existing inventory, with an estimated Rmb30 trillion of unsold residential inventory by the end of 2023 [1][3]. - Demand-side measures include further adjustments to housing policy regulations to stimulate both rigid and upgrade demand for housing, alongside interest rate cuts for existing mortgages [1][3]. New-Type Urbanization - The report discusses the goal of achieving 70% urbanization by 2029, with specific measures to facilitate the urbanization of over 170 million migrant workers and their families [4][5]. - The NDRC is committed to enhancing urban facility capacity and industrial foundations in counties, which account for a significant portion of China's GDP and population [4][5].