高盛：日本_BOP_8月入境支出下降，初级收入盈余创历史新高

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for Japan's current account balance, with a surplus of +¥3.80 trillion in August, representing a 65% increase from the previous year [2][3]. Core Insights - The primary income balance reached a record surplus of +¥4.70 trillion in August, up 28.5% year-on-year, driven by increased receipts from overseas investments [3]. - Inbound spending from foreign visitors declined in August, but travel receipts were still up 40% year-on-year, indicating resilience despite external factors like natural disasters [2][3]. - Domestic investors continued to be net buyers of foreign bonds, while foreign investors were significant net sellers of Japanese equities, reflecting a shift in investment patterns [5][6]. Summary by Sections Current Account Balance - The non-adjusted current account balance for August was +¥3.80 trillion, exceeding forecasts and showing a substantial increase from +¥2.29 trillion in August 2023 [2]. - The seasonally adjusted current account balance was +¥3.02 trillion, with a widening surplus of 5.7% of GDP on an annualized basis for July-August [3]. Trade Balance - Japan's trade balance showed a narrower deficit of -¥377.9 billion in August, with export value rising by 6.2% year-on-year and import value increasing by only 1.3% [2]. Inbound Spending and Travel Receipts - Travel receipts from foreign visitors fell to +¥638.8 billion in August from a record-high of +¥730.2 billion in July, but still represented a 40% increase year-on-year [2]. Primary Income Balance - The primary income balance recorded a surplus of +¥4.70 trillion in August, with receipts increasing to ¥6.07 trillion, marking a significant rise in earnings from overseas assets [3]. Investment Trends - Domestic investors were net buyers of foreign medium-long term bonds at +¥2.33 trillion in September, although this was a decrease from August's record high [5]. - Foreign investors were large net sellers of Japanese equities in September, amounting to -¥4.97 trillion, indicating a shift in capital flows [6][7].