高盛：房地产市场活动规模_9 月 29 日当周_买家犹豫不决导致规模连续下降

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI), Installed Building Products Inc. (IBP), and TopBuild Corp. (BLD) [26]. Core Insights - The GS Housing Activity Weekly Scale held at 4 for the week of September 29, reflecting a 2% sequential decline and a 12% year-over-year decrease, which is 22% below the long-term average [2][4]. - Despite a decline in sales, mortgage purchase applications rose for the sixth consecutive week, indicating potential future recovery as the Federal Reserve is expected to implement 150 basis points of rate cuts through June 2025 [2][10]. - The report highlights that building product companies with greater exposure to new residential construction are well-positioned for growth [2]. Summary by Sections Housing Market Activity - The index for housing activity is at 4, indicating a weak market compared to historical norms [2][4]. - Active listings are 20% below the 2019 average but have increased by 16% year-over-year [10]. - Home sales fell by 6% sequentially and year-over-year, while the median sale price increased by 4% year-over-year [10]. Mortgage Market Update - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was reported at 6.12%, up 4 basis points sequentially and down 137 basis points year-over-year [14]. - Mortgage applications rose by 64% year-over-year, with purchase volumes growing by 9% [14][19]. Market Dynamics - 35% of homes were off the market within two weeks, an increase from 28% in the same week of 2019 [10]. - The time on the market is approximately 6 days shorter than in the same week in 2019 [10]. - There are signs of underlying weakness, such as 6.6% of active listings experiencing price declines, significantly above the 3.5% average in 2019 [10].