高盛：中国光模块第三季度预览；持续的需求强劲；供应动态值得关注

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Innolight, Eoptolink, and HG Tech, while assigning a "Neutral" rating to TFC Optical [1][18][21][24]. Core Insights - The optical transceiver sector is expected to experience strong growth driven by robust demand from AI networking, with supply dynamics being a critical factor to monitor [1][5]. - The report anticipates strong year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter profit growth for the companies covered in the upcoming earnings season, with a focus on supply dynamics, particularly upstream laser component supplies [1][4]. - The report highlights the potential for silicon photonics adoption as a response to tight 100G EML supplies, which could benefit Innolight due to its early mover advantage [5][6]. Summary by Company Innolight - Revenue for 3Q24 is estimated at RMB 6,837 million, reflecting a 126% year-over-year increase and a 15% quarter-over-quarter increase [4]. - The 12-month price target is revised to RMB 230 based on a 26x 2025E P/E, indicating an upside of 48.5% [13][18]. Eoptolink - Revenue for 3Q24 is projected at RMB 2,215 million, showing a 183% year-over-year increase and a 37% quarter-over-quarter increase [4]. - The 12-month price target is revised to RMB 180 based on a 27x 2025E P/E, with an upside of 38.5% [15][21]. HG Tech - Revenue for 3Q24 is expected to be RMB 3,609 million, a 65% year-over-year increase and a 19% quarter-over-quarter increase [4]. - The 12-month price target is revised to RMB 52 based on a 26x 2025E P/E, indicating an upside of 48.9% [22][24]. TFC Optical - Revenue for 3Q24 is estimated at RMB 947 million, reflecting a 75% year-over-year increase and a 15% quarter-over-quarter increase [4]. - The 12-month price target is revised to RMB 112 based on a 30x 2025E P/E, with an upside of 11.4% [27][28].