Investment Rating - MAA: Buy with a 12-month price target of 139 based on a target FFO multiple of 19.3x [12] - EQR: Neutral with a 12-month price target of 318 based on a target FFO multiple of 19.5x [14] - UDR: Sell with a 12-month price target of $42 based on a target FFO multiple of 16.4x [15] Core Insights - The Sunbelt multifamily market has shown better-than-expected year-to-date results, with Morgan Properties reporting a +1% rental growth in their Sunbelt portfolio and +3% in the Mid-Atlantic portfolio [2] - Demand in the Sunbelt remains strong, driven by continued in-migration and robust job and wage growth, contradicting narratives of demand issues in these markets [3] - Rent growth in Sunbelt markets is expected to accelerate in 2025, with projections of ~3% growth, supported by strong occupancy and low turnover [6] Summary by Sections Rent Growth Expectations - 2024 rent growth results have significantly outperformed expectations due to higher demand, with Cortland's portfolio showing slight positive rent growth in Q3 after a negative first half [2] - Expectations for 2025 rent growth in Sunbelt markets are around 3%, with potential for new lease rate growth to turn positive in Q2 2025 [6] Demand Drivers - Strong demand in the Sunbelt is attributed to high absorption rates, job growth, and wage increases, indicating a favorable environment for multifamily REITs like MAA and CPT [3] Supply Dynamics - Supply in the Sunbelt is expected to peak in Q1 2025, with a decline in multifamily starts, which may negatively impact the multifamily REITs if demand does not keep pace [5] - Higher development costs and interest rates are influencing the development market, leading to a cautious outlook for new multifamily starts until late 2025 [5] Transaction Environment - Interest in transaction activity has been reignited, but distressed opportunities have not yet materialized due to "extend and pretend" strategies by property owners [8]
高盛：美洲房地产_房地产投资信托基金_公寓_私人房地产网络研讨会要点
2024-10-10 13:39