高盛：Bilibili-升级后投资者反馈 - 关注游戏寿命和长期利润；买入

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili Inc. (BILI) with a 12-month price target of $22.60, indicating a potential downside of 14.6% from the current price of$ 26.46 [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the sustainability of the game "Sanguo NSLG" and its expected contribution to gaming revenue in Q3 and Q4, alongside the company's capabilities in video and advertising business [1][4]. - Bilibili is expected to achieve a profit margin of 10-15% by 2026, driven by improved business mix and operating leverage from new game contributions [1][12]. - The advertising business is projected to outperform industry peers, with expectations of over 20% year-on-year growth in 4Q24/2025, supported by increased ad load and new advertising formats [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 22,527.9 million in 2023 to RMB 34,673.7 million by 2026, with EBITDA expected to rise from a loss of RMB 654.7 million in 2023 to RMB 6,315.0 million in 2026 [1][3]. - The normalized gross margin for 2026 is estimated at 39%, with a net margin of 12% anticipated [11][12]. Game Performance - "Sanguo NSLG" is expected to generate over RMB 1 billion in revenue recognition for Q3 2024, with a grossing run-rate of at least RMB 0.4 billion in September [1][4]. - The game is projected to maintain a 30% operating profit margin due to lower channel costs and disciplined marketing expenses [5]. Advertising Business - Bilibili's advertising revenue is expected to grow from RMB 1,669 million in Q1 2024 to RMB 2,358 million in Q4 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31% [10]. - The company is enhancing its ad technology infrastructure and expanding ad slots, which is anticipated to improve monetization efficiency [6][8]. Valuation - Bilibili is currently trading at a 20X 2026E P/E ratio, which is a premium compared to the China internet average of 15X, justified by its higher growth rate [12]. - The implied 2026E P/E for Bilibili ranges from 16X to 22X in various scenarios, indicating a reasonable valuation compared to historical peaks [12].