TYN(000591)2024-10-10 13:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Daqo and Flat H/Xinyi, while Longi is rated "Neutral" and GCL/Tongwei/TCL Zhonghuan are rated "Sell" [3][8]. Core Insights - The solar industry is experiencing a re-balancing of supply and demand, with upstream prices for Poly and Wafer seeing moderate increases, while downstream prices for Cell and Module are under intense competition, leading to a decline in profitability for these segments [1][11]. - Cash burn trends for covered companies are diverging, with Daqo expected to improve due to lower production and disciplined capital expenditure, while Tongwei and Longi are facing deterioration due to high capital expenditures and decreasing prices [2][5]. - A potential price rebound of 5%-10% across the solar value chain is anticipated by 2025, driven by continued supply cuts [3][8]. Summary by Sections Pricing Trends - In September, spot prices for Poly/Wafer increased by 1%, while Cell/Module prices decreased by 2% and 2% respectively, indicating a mixed pricing environment across the solar value chain [11][31]. - The average cash gross profit margin (GPM) for Poly improved slightly, while other segments like Wafer, Cell, and Module saw further declines [1][5]. Production and Inventory - Production for Poly, Wafer, Cell, and Glass decreased by 4%, 4%, 4%, and 8% respectively, while Module production remained flat [8][9]. - Inventory levels showed a moderate decline for downstream Cell and Module, but increased for Wafer and Glass, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [8][9]. Demand Dynamics - Demand for solar installations in China showed a sequential decline, with August installations down 22% month-over-month but up 3% year-over-year [31]. - Module exports remained flat month-over-month but increased by 23% year-over-year, with strong demand noted in the Middle East and APAC regions [31].