高盛：美洲住宅建筑商和建筑产品_ 2024 年第三季度收益预览_ 需求仍面临挑战，业绩将由公司特定努力主导

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for AZEK, TREX, and WY, while recommending a "Sell" for AOS and LPX [1][5][10][11][12]. Core Insights - Despite a 78 basis points decline in the 30-year mortgage rate, housing activity remains challenged due to weak consumer sentiment and macroeconomic uncertainty. However, stocks in the coverage are up an average of 18% since early July, with builders leading at 29% [1]. - The report anticipates that margins for many companies will remain under pressure due to limited revenue upside, particularly in volumes, as consumers adopt a wait-and-see approach to home purchases and repairs [1][2]. - The report highlights potential recovery in housing turnover, supported by survey data, and suggests that management teams may adopt a cautious tone while noting potential upside as 2025 approaches [1][2]. Summary by Company AZEK - AZEK is positioned for accelerated growth due to share gains and reduced retail exposure, with a 12-month price target of $52, implying a 19% upside potential [8]. TREX - TREX is expected to benefit from normalizing retail channel inventories, with a 12-month price target of $84, indicating a 30% upside potential [9]. WY - WY's bullish outlook is based on improving operating conditions in lumber, with a revised price target of $39, suggesting a 19% upside potential [10]. AOS - AOS is rated as a "Sell" due to expected volatility in residential water heater volumes, with a price target of $73, indicating a 17% downside potential [11]. LPX - LPX is also rated as a "Sell" due to anticipated weakness in R&R demand, with a revised price target of $90, suggesting a 17% downside potential [12]. Earnings Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of new home demand and potential recovery in R&R spending as key focus areas for investors during the earnings season [17]. - It also highlights the implications of severe weather on new home construction and broader supply chains, as well as the outlook for gross margins and SG&A leverage [17][19].