高盛：美洲技术_硬件 - PC_3Q24 PC 行业出货量依然疲软；对 2025 年复苏的信心持续。

Industry Overview - The PC industry shipments remained weak in 3Q24, with IDC reporting a -2% year-over-year decline and Canalys reporting a +1% year-over-year growth, both indicating slower growth compared to previous quarters [1] - The recovery in PC shipments is slower than initially expected for 2024, but growth is anticipated to accelerate in 2025, with IDC forecasting 4% year-over-year growth for 2025 [2] - Major vendors like Dell, Apple, and HP showed weaker-than-expected shipments in 3Q24, with Dell and Apple experiencing significant year-over-year declines [1] Vendor Performance - Dell's 3Q24 shipments declined by -4% year-over-year according to both IDC and Canalys, while Apple's Mac shipments dropped by -24% (IDC) and -20% (Canalys) [1] - HP's shipments remained flat year-over-year in 3Q24, showing no growth [1] - Lenovo maintained a stable market position with a 3% year-over-year growth in shipments, according to both IDC and Canalys [9] Market Share and Growth Trends - Lenovo holds the largest market share at 25% (Canalys) and 24% (IDC), followed by HP at 20% and Dell at 15% (Canalys) and 14% (IDC) [9] - ASUS showed strong quarter-over-quarter growth at 22% (Canalys) and 29% (IDC), indicating a potential recovery in its market position [9] - The total PC market saw a 6% quarter-over-quarter growth according to Canalys and 7% according to IDC, reflecting seasonal improvements [9] Company-Specific Analysis: Dell Technologies - Dell's F2025 estimates were revised downward due to lower PC unit sales, partially offset by higher average selling prices (ASPs) [10] - The company's Client Solutions Group (CSG) revenue is forecasted at $12.46 billion for F3Q25E, reflecting a +1$155, based on 15X NTM+1Y EPS, reflecting confidence in its diversified portfolio and growth prospects [16] - HP Inc is rated Neutral with a 12-month target price of $35, based on 9.0X NTM+1Y EPS, reflecting growing confidence in a 2025 PC recovery [21]