高盛：美洲生命科学工具与服务_ 3Q24 收益预览_ 焦点转向 2025 年

Investment Rating - The Life Science Tools sector is rated with a cautious outlook, reflecting concerns over biopharma spending and instrument recovery [1][2][29] Core Insights - The Life Science Tools sector has performed in line with the S&P 500, but the CRO sector has underperformed due to fears of continued weakness in biopharma spending [1] - There is confidence in a bioprocessing recovery, but the speed and magnitude of this recovery remain debated among investors [2] - The report highlights a potential instrument recovery, particularly in mass spectrometry, driven by innovation and academic funding [3][8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Year-to-date performance shows the Life Science Tools sector outperforming the XLV by approximately 8% [1] - The CRO sector has underperformed both the S&P and XLV by around 20% and 12% respectively [1] Bioprocessing Recovery - There is optimism regarding sequential improvement in order growth and destocking trends, but the return of large pharma spending in 2025 is seen as less likely [2] - DHR's Biotech segment growth estimates of 11.4% are viewed as overly ambitious [2] Instrument Recovery - The report discusses the correlation between biopharma capex and instrument procurement, noting a separation in growth trends among different companies [3][8] - TMO and BRKR are expected to be more insulated from downturns in the Pharma market due to their focus on mass spec instruments [8] China Market Dynamics - China is highlighted as a key area of focus, with expectations for stimulus impacts to materialize in 2025 [19] - Long-term growth in China is projected to slow, affecting the growth contributions from Tools companies [20] Valuation Insights - The sector is currently trading at a premium valuation of 20.4x 2025E EV/EBITDA, above the long-term average of 16x [29] - TMO and DHR are noted for maintaining high valuation multiples despite market challenges [29][30] Earnings Expectations - The report provides earnings expectations for various companies, indicating cautious growth projections for 2025 [59][62][67]