高盛：美洲技术：半导体反映近线 HDD 优势和 NAND 弱点，预计 3Q24 EPS；对 WDCSTX 保持中性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating on both Seagate (STX) and Western Digital (WDC) [1][24]. Core Insights - Estimates for Seagate have been raised due to sustained strength in Nearline HDD demand, while estimates for Western Digital have been lowered due to weakness in NAND pricing [1]. - Seagate's 12-month price target is increased to $110 from $107, while Western Digital's price target is decreased to $72 from $79 [1][19]. HDD Industry Summary - Demand for Nearline HDDs remains robust, with exabytes shipped growing sequentially and pricing increasing, albeit at a moderate pace [1]. - The industry is currently supply-constrained, with extended lead times across key inputs [1]. - Western Digital has gained market share in the capacity-optimized HDD market [5] and is expected to outgrow Seagate in HDD revenue for CY2024, but Seagate is forecasted to recover market share by CY2025 [1][3]. NAND Industry Summary - The NAND market is experiencing a soft patch characterized by excess inventory and weak demand in the PC/smartphone OEM sectors, partially offset by strength in enterprise SSDs [8]. - Western Digital is expected to be disproportionately affected due to its higher exposure to the Client SSD and retail markets [8]. - A sequential decline in NAND average selling prices (ASPs) is anticipated through CY2025, although potential upside exists if supply-side discipline continues [8][11]. Financial Estimates - Western Digital's revenue forecasts for CY2024/25/26 have been reduced by 2%/5%/4%, respectively, with non-GAAP EPS estimates decreasing by 7%/21%/18% [11]. - Seagate's revenue forecasts for CY2024/25/26 have been raised by 1%/3%/3%, with non-GAAP EPS estimates increasing by 4%/5%/6% [14]. Price Target Methodology - Western Digital's price target of $72 is based on a fundamental component of $66 and an SOTP component of $79 [19][20]. - Seagate's price target of $110 is based on a normalized non-GAAP EPS estimate of $7.30 [24].